← Premier League 2023-24 · Thu, Apr 4, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 53% | 50% | 1.83 | fair |
| Man United win | 25% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 29% | 4.41 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Chelsea −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 63% | 1.42 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 37% | 3.03 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Moisés Caicedo · Chelsea |
| 4' | ⚽ | Conor Gallagher · Chelsea |
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 32' | 🟨 | Malo Gusto · Chelsea |
| 34' | ⚽ | Alejandro Garnacho · Man United |
| 35' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 39' | ⚽ | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 67' | ⚽ | Alejandro Garnacho · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Man United |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 28 | Shots | 19 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 278.00 |
| 673.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 10.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.04 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1649.04 | 1726.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.88 | -9.95 |
| eye test v1 | 1.64 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| league points | 40.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 5.18 | 4.97 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.32 | 0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -0.36 | -1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 23.47 | 25.93 |
| state index | 0.70 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 262.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 2.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 1.65 |