← Premier League 2023-24 · Wed, Apr 3, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 78% | 65% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 22% | 7.50 | value: +65% |
| Aston Villa win | 8% | 13% | 13.50 | value: +74% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City −1.75 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Aston Villa −1.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 62% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 38% | 2.90 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Rodri · Man City |
| 20' | ⚽ | Jhon Durán · Aston Villa |
| 32' | 🟨 | Jack Grealish · Man City |
| 38' | 🟨 | Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
| 45' | ⚽ | Phil Foden · Man City |
| 62' | ⚽ | Phil Foden · Man City |
| 69' | ⚽ | Phil Foden · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 2833.00 | 519.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1933.05 | 1758.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.12 | -2.72 |
| eye test v1 | 1.18 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.62 |
| league points | 64.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.16 | 4.07 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.76 | 0.46 |
| solidity v1 | 1.04 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.09 | 27.02 |
| state index | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.05 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 110.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.78 |