← Premier League 2023-24 · Tue, Apr 2, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 48% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
| West Ham win | 29% | 28% | 3.47 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.26 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Tottenham +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 65% | 1.42 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 35% | 3.00 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Brennan Johnson · Tottenham |
| 19' | ⚽ | Kurt Zouma · West Ham |
| 44' | 🟨 | Micky van de Ven · Tottenham |
| 53' | 🟨 | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham |
| 74' | 🟨 | Brennan Johnson · Tottenham |
| 89' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 1584.00 | 276.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1860.51 | 1939.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.64 | -3.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 44.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 69.00 |
| rest days | 3.28 | 3.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 2.00 |
| solidity v1 | -0.40 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 29.08 | 25.72 |
| state index | 0.68 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.26 | 1.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 9.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 2.10 |