← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 31, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Coote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 73% | 68% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 14% | 6.60 | fair |
| Brighton win | 11% | 18% | 9.25 | value: +65% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton −1.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Liverpool −1.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 68% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 14' | 🟨 | Alexis Mac Allister · Liverpool |
| 20' | 🟨 | Pascal Groß · Brighton |
| 27' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · Liverpool |
| 48' | 🟨 | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 50' | 🟨 | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
| 58' | 🟨 | Joe Gomez · Liverpool |
| 65' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jan Paul van Hecke · Brighton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Wataru Endo · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 30 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 6 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Anfield |
| Cody Gakpo · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2565.00 | 577.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| elo | 2080.70 | 1871.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.05 | -27.51 |
| eye test v1 | 2.41 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.78 |
| league points | 64.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 90.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 64.60 |
| rest days | 16.71 | 16.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.28 | 1.32 |
| solidity v1 | 0.66 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.30 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.00 | 26.00 |
| state index | 2.19 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 346.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.91 | 1.13 |