← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 30, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 63% | 55% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.50 | value: +13% |
| Wolves win | 15% | 20% | 6.66 | value: +31% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Wolves −1 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 61% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 39% | 2.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Pablo Sarabia · Wolves |
| 30' | 🟨 | Youri Tielemans · Aston Villa |
| 36' | ⚽ | Moussa Diaby · Aston Villa |
| 65' | ⚽ | Ezri Konsa · Aston Villa |
| 81' | 🟨 | Tawanda Chirewa · Wolves |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jhon Durán · Aston Villa |
| 84' | 🟨 | Max Kilman · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Digne · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Toti Gomes · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days |
| 515.00 |
| 242.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1751.63 | 1616.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.82 | -2.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.77 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| league points | 56.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 13.15 | 21.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 0.39 |
| solidity v1 | 0.31 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.92 | 26.37 |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 18.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.15 |