← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 56% | 49% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 36% | 4.20 | value: +50% |
| Sheffield United win | 20% | 15% | 4.89 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham +0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Sheffield United +0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.17 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 58' | ⚽ | Ben Brereton Díaz · Sheffield United |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mason Holgate · Sheffield United |
| 62' | ⚽ | João Palhinha · Fulham |
| 68' | ⚽ | Oliver McBurnie · Sheffield United |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ben Brereton Díaz · Sheffield United |
| 86' | ⚽ | Bobby Decordova-Reid · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jayden Bogle · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Norwood · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Calvin Bassey · Fulham |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 24 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 15 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| ⚽ |
| Rodrigo Muniz · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 120.00 | 1003.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 4.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1661.10 | 1838.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.40 | 39.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | 0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.10 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| league points | 14.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 26.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.07 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | -2.58 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 28.32 |
| state index | -0.49 | 1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.16 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| travel km | — | 227.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.34 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.90 |