← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 76% | 73% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 12% | 6.66 | fair |
| Burnley win | 10% | 15% | 11.18 | value: +62% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea −1.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Burnley −1.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 55% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 45% | 3.10 | value: +41% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Lorenz Assignon · Burnley |
| 35' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 40' | 🟨 | Lorenz Assignon · Burnley |
| 40' | 🟥 | Lorenz Assignon · Burnley |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Conor Gallagher · Chelsea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josh Cullen · Burnley |
| 47' | ⚽ | Josh Cullen · Burnley |
| 78' | ⚽ | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 81' | ⚽ | Dara O'Shea · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 33 | Shots | 18 |
| 13 | On target | 7 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| Maxime Estève · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 273.00 | 668.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1655.34 | 1457.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.92 | -9.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.94 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 39.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 18.79 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 0.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.94 | -0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -0.56 | -1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 23.95 | 24.62 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 291.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.07 |