← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 30, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 52% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| West Ham win | 25% | 22% | 3.96 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham −0.75 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Newcastle −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 62% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 38% | 2.72 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 21' | ⚽ | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
| 40' | 🟨 | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mohammed Kudus · West Ham |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 80' | 🟨 | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 83' | ⚽ | Harvey Barnes · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟥 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 24 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Harvey Barnes · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 880.00 | 1581.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1687.84 | 1693.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.36 | 14.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| league points | 40.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 18.69 | 12.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | -0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -1.14 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.21 | 28.51 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| travel km | — | 398.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.93 |