← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 39% | 36% | 2.50 | fair |
| Aston Villa win | 35% | 42% | 2.83 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Aston Villa +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 57% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 43% | 2.42 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
| 70' | 🟨 | Youri Tielemans · Aston Villa |
| 79' | ⚽ | Nicolò Zaniolo · Aston Villa |
| 83' | 🟨 | Edson Álvarez · West Ham |
| 83' | 🟨 | Nicolò Zaniolo · Aston Villa |
| 86' | 🟨 | Mohammed Kudus · West Ham |
| 86' | 🟨 | Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
| 87' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Mavropanos · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 1568.00 | 502.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1694.05 | 1751.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.43 | 1.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.59 |
| league points | 43.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 2.84 | 2.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 0.73 |
| solidity v1 | -0.30 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 29.72 | 27.17 |
| state index | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.11 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 169.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.87 | 1.55 |