← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 43% | 44% | 2.28 | fair |
| Burnley win | 31% | 29% | 3.18 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Brentford +0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 55% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 45% | 2.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟥 | Sergio Reguilón · Brentford |
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Jacob Bruun Larsen · Burnley |
| 62' | ⚽ | David Datro Fofana · Burnley |
| 68' | 🟨 | Vitaly Janelt · Brentford |
| 81' | 🟨 | Zeki Amdouni · Burnley |
| 83' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Ajer · Brentford |
| 84' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Ajer · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charlie Taylor · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Shandon Baptiste · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ivan Toney · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 654.00 | 1993.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1445.03 | 1596.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.67 | -24.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| league points | 14.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 37.20 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | -1.21 |
| solidity v1 | -1.83 | -1.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.53 | 26.97 |
| state index | -1.44 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -1.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 287.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.17 | 2.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.15 |