← Premier League 2023-24 · Wed, Mar 13, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Allison
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 63% | 65% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 14% | 4.89 | fair |
| Luton win | 17% | 21% | 5.69 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Luton −1 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 63% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 37% | 3.04 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Tahith Chong · Luton |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 31' | ⚽ | Chiedozie Ogbene · Luton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ross Barkley · Luton |
| 50' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
| 62' | ⚽ | Illia Zabarnyi · Bournemouth |
| 64' | ⚽ | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
| 66' | 🟨 | Chiedozie Ogbene · Luton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 83' | ⚽ | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 24 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 256.00 | 498.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.48 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1789.74 | 1709.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.62 | -31.54 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 32.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 4.19 | 4.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 0.51 |
| solidity v1 | -0.99 | -2.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.48 | 26.82 |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.70 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 160.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 2.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.45 |