← Premier League 2023-24 · Mon, Mar 11, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 52% | 44% | 1.91 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 25% | 30% | 3.91 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.31 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Chelsea −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 55% | 1.45 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 45% | 2.89 | value: +29% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea |
| 39' | 🟨 | Raheem Sterling · Chelsea |
| 43' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 57' | ⚽ | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 71' | 🟨 | Đorđe Petrović · Chelsea |
| 72' | 🟨 | Moisés Caicedo · Chelsea |
| 76' | ⚽ | Mykhaylo Mudryk · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe White · Newcastle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jacob Murphy · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 254.00 | 861.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1645.57 | 1697.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.53 | 0.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 36.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 9.21 | 9.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.94 | 0.41 |
| solidity v1 | -1.70 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 23.55 | 27.67 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.06 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 400.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.49 |