← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 58% | 72% | 1.66 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 23% | 17% | 4.20 | fair |
| Burnley win | 19% | 12% | 5.43 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Burnley −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 58% | 1.87 | value: +8% |
| Under | 48% | 42% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | David Datro Fofana · Burnley |
| 44' | 🟨 | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Konstantinos Mavropanos · Burnley |
| 46' | ⚽ | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
| 64' | 🟨 | Lorenz Assignon · Burnley |
| 72' | 🟨 | Hannes Delcroix · Burnley |
| 76' | 🟨 | Sander Berge · Burnley |
| 83' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
| 84' | 🟨 | Maxime Estève · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ | Danny Ings · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1561.00 |
| 648.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1684.15 | 1437.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.57 | -29.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| league points | 42.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 2.75 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 0.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | -0.68 |
| solidity v1 | -2.54 | -1.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 29.02 | 24.26 |
| state index | -0.03 | -1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 293.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.31 | 2.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.00 |