← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 9, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 79% | 63% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 10% | 7.50 | fair |
| Brentford win | 7% | 27% | 13.00 | value: +253% ⚠ |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford −2 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Arsenal −2 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 74% | 1.42 | value: +5% |
| Under | 33% | 26% | 2.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Frank Onyeka · Brentford |
| 10' | 🟨 | Gabriel Magalhães · Arsenal |
| 19' | ⚽ | Declan Rice · Arsenal |
| 21' | 🟨 | Zanka · Brentford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kai Havertz · Arsenal |
| 45' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 72' | 🟨 | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 86' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathan Collins · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 433.00 | 1986.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1861.00 | 1599.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.43 | -3.27 |
| eye test v1 | 2.32 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| league points | 61.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 4.90 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.26 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 13.20 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.20 | -0.99 |
| solidity v1 | 2.42 | -1.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.86 | 27.47 |
| state index | 2.30 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -1.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 14.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.26 | 1.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.91 | 1.34 |