← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 71% | 79% | 1.35 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 18% | 12% | 5.79 | fair |
| Sheffield United win | 12% | 9% | 8.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Sheffield United −1.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 67% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 33% | 2.88 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Ben Brereton Díaz · Sheffield United |
| 10' | 🟨 | Miloš Kerkez · Bournemouth |
| 15' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 27' | ⚽ | Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United |
| 36' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United |
| 61' | 🟨 | Oliver McBurnie · Sheffield United |
| 64' | ⚽ | Jack Robinson · Sheffield United |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ivo Grbić · Sheffield United |
| 74' | ⚽ | Dango Ouattara · Bournemouth |
| 88' | 🟨 | Chris Mepham · Bournemouth |
| 88' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 32 | Shots | 13 |
| 12 | On target | 9 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Oliver Norwood · Sheffield United |
| 90' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 252.00 | 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1794.91 | 1655.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.40 | -9.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 43.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 31.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 27.40 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | -1.74 |
| solidity v1 | -0.61 | -2.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.20 | 26.03 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.69 | -1.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 294.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 2.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 0.94 |