← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 59% | 64% | 1.65 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.40 | fair |
| Fulham win | 19% | 18% | 5.24 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −0.75 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Fulham −0.75 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 68% | 1.58 | value: +8% |
| Under | 39% | 32% | 2.51 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Tosin Adarabioyo · Fulham |
| 36' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Man United |
| 42' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · Fulham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Harry Wilson · Fulham |
| 65' | ⚽ | Calvin Bassey · Fulham |
| 89' | ⚽ | Harry Maguire · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Cairney · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bernd Leno · Fulham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alex Iwobi · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 17 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 9 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 633.00 | 968.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 4.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1937.13 | 1791.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.44 | -3.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.97 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 44.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 5.94 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| solidity v1 | -1.01 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.49 | 29.30 |
| state index | 1.44 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.11 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 261.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.92 | 1.44 |