← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 49% | 58% | 1.98 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 27% | 19% | 3.54 | fair |
| Burnley win | 24% | 23% | 4.13 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Crystal Palace −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 50% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 50% | 2.17 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟥 | Josh Brownhill · Burnley |
| 50' | 🟨 | Adam Wharton · Crystal Palace |
| 68' | ⚽ | Chris Richards · Crystal Palace |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 85' | 🟨 | Maxime Estève · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tyrick Mitchell · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 2 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 23.00 | 633.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1768.83 | 1716.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.03 | -14.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 25.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 34.60 |
| rest days | 4.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | -1.10 |
| solidity v1 | -1.17 | -1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.43 | 24.37 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | -1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 302.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.62 | 1.20 |