← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 61% | 58% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.51 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 18% | 22% | 5.50 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest −1 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Aston Villa −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 63% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 37% | 2.64 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 15' | 🟨 | Murillo · Nott'm Forest |
| 29' | ⚽ | Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
| 39' | ⚽ | Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟨 | Felipe · Nott'm Forest |
| 45' | ⚽ | Moussa Niakhaté · Nott'm Forest |
| 48' | ⚽ | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 57' | 🟨 | Álex Moreno · Aston Villa |
| 61' | ⚽ | Leon Bailey · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 480.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1942.68 | 1755.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.95 | 2.48 |
| eye test v1 | 1.20 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 49.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.33 | -0.23 |
| solidity v1 | -0.34 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.59 | 25.46 |
| state index | 1.00 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 69.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.31 |