← Premier League 2023-24 · Wed, Feb 21, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 76% | 73% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 17% | 6.93 | value: +19% |
| Luton win | 10% | 10% | 11.00 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −1.75 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Liverpool −1.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 67% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 33% | 3.33 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Chiedozie Ogbene · Luton |
| 18' | 🟨 | Alfie Doughty · Luton |
| 42' | 🟨 | Cauley Woodrow · Luton |
| 56' | ⚽ | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
| 58' | ⚽ | Cody Gakpo · Liverpool |
| 71' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · Liverpool |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ross Barkley · Luton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Joe Gomez · Liverpool |
| 89' | 🟨 | Issa Kaboré · Luton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Harvey Elliott · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 29 | Shots | 12 |
| 13 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 2526.00 | 477.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1873.75 | 1561.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.29 | -4.24 |
| eye test v1 | 1.59 | 1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.78 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| league points | 57.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 4.29 | 3.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.28 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.41 | 0.92 |
| solidity v1 | -0.28 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.59 | 27.14 |
| state index | 1.41 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 242.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 2.04 |