← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 18, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Coote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 54% | 43% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.20 | value: +13% |
| Luton win | 23% | 30% | 4.32 | value: +32% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton +0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Man United +0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 63% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 37% | 2.61 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Rasmus Højlund · Man United |
| 7' | ⚽ | Rasmus Højlund · Man United |
| 14' | ⚽ | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 17' | 🟨 | Cauley Woodrow · Luton |
| 20' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
| 34' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Man United |
| 42' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Man United |
| 70' | 🟨 | Andros Townsend · Luton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Kobbie Mainoo · Man United |
| 81' | 🟨 | Victor Lindelöf · Man United |
| 87' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| Gabriel Osho · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 474.00 | 627.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1720.25 | 1931.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.17 | 22.49 |
| eye test v1 | 1.24 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| league points | 20.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 8.06 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | -0.75 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.60 | 26.47 |
| state index | 0.42 | 1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 215.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.19 | 1.48 |