← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 57% | 52% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.33 | fair |
| Sheffield United win | 21% | 29% | 4.91 | value: +43% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton +0.75 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Sheffield United +0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 64% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 36% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟥 | Mason Holgate · Sheffield United |
| 20' | ⚽ | Facundo Buonanotte · Brighton |
| 24' | ⚽ | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tariq Lamptey · Brighton |
| 56' | 🟨 | Facundo Buonanotte · Brighton |
| 75' | ⚽ (og) | Jack Robinson · Brighton |
| 78' | ⚽ | Simon Adingra · Brighton |
| 85' | ⚽ | Simon Adingra · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Davies · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bart Verbruggen · Brighton |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 24 |
| 1 | On target | 10 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 3 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| 🟨 |
| Billy Gilmour · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 79.00 | 535.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1416.63 | 1700.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.68 | -25.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| league points | 13.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.60 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 1.27 |
| solidity v1 | -1.37 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.47 | 27.45 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | 1.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 294.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.95 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.41 |