← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 42% | 45% | 2.29 | fair |
| West Ham win | 31% | 23% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.60 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham −0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Nott'm Forest −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 51% | 2.04 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Mohammed Kudus · West Ham |
| 9' | 🟨 | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 36' | 🟨 | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Taiwo Awoniyi · Nott'm Forest |
| 45' | ⚽ | Taiwo Awoniyi · Nott'm Forest |
| 57' | 🟨 | Kurt Zouma · West Ham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Neco Williams · Nott'm Forest |
| 68' | 🟨 | Nicolás Domínguez · Nott'm Forest |
| 68' | 🟨 | Kalvin Phillips · West Ham |
| 68' | 🟨 | Vladimír Coufal · West Ham |
| 71' | 🟨 | Kalvin Phillips · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| 71' | 🟥 | Kalvin Phillips · West Ham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Callum Hudson-Odoi · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 78.00 |
| 1539.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1523.37 | 1689.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.64 | -47.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| league points | 21.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | -0.43 |
| solidity v1 | 0.26 | -1.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.00 | 28.04 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 175.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 2.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.21 |