← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 74% | 70% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 19% | 6.08 | value: +13% |
| Burnley win | 10% | 11% | 10.32 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal +1.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Burnley +1.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 53% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 47% | 2.54 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Martin Ødegaard · Arsenal |
| 7' | 🟨 | Aaron Ramsey · Burnley |
| 39' | 🟨 | Lorenz Assignon · Burnley |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 47' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 66' | ⚽ | Leandro Trossard · Arsenal |
| 78' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 0 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 626.00 | 412.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1723.70 | 2041.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.45 | 28.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 2.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| league points | 13.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.40 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.01 | 1.97 |
| solidity v1 | -1.75 | 1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 23.28 | 25.27 |
| state index | -0.22 | 1.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.41 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 286.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.06 | 0.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 2.65 |