← Premier League 2023-24 · Mon, Feb 12, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 56% | 54% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 20% | 22% | 5.04 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea +0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Crystal Palace +0.75 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 55% | 1.86 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 45% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea |
| 30' | ⚽ | Jefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace |
| 47' | ⚽ | Conor Gallagher · Chelsea |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace |
| 80' | 🟨 | Daniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Axel Disasi · Chelsea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Conor Gallagher · Chelsea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 11.00 | 226.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1781.71 | 1831.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.44 | -3.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.75 |
| league points | 24.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 9.21 | 8.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 1.09 |
| solidity v1 | -1.22 | -1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.67 | 25.55 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 11.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.87 | 1.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.72 |