← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 11, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 45% | 49% | 2.18 | value: +7% |
| Man United win | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.93 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Man United −0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 64% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 36% | 2.66 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Rasmus Højlund · Man United |
| 37' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Man United |
| 45' | 🟨 | Clément Lenglet · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kobbie Mainoo · Man United |
| 60' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
| 67' | ⚽ | Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
| 71' | 🟨 | Moussa Diaby · Aston Villa |
| 86' | ⚽ | Scott McTominay · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 17 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 467.00 | 620.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1947.32 | 1918.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.34 | 20.29 |
| eye test v1 | 1.12 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 46.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | -0.42 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 26.26 |
| state index | 1.09 | 1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.21 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 109.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.96 | 1.35 |