← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 62% | 67% | 1.56 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.40 | fair |
| West Ham win | 16% | 16% | 6.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal +1 | 50% | 1.98 |
| West Ham +1 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 65% | 1.89 | value: +22% |
| Under | 48% | 35% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Edson Álvarez · West Ham |
| 32' | ⚽ | William Saliba · Arsenal |
| 38' | 🟨 | Alphonse Aréola · West Ham |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 44' | ⚽ | Gabriel Magalhães · Arsenal |
| 45' | ⚽ | Leandro Trossard · Arsenal |
| 63' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 65' | ⚽ | Declan Rice · Arsenal |
| 76' | 🟨 | Mohammed Kudus · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kalvin Phillips · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 5 | Shots | 25 |
| 1 | On target | 12 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 1533.00 | 406.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1706.72 | 1825.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.15 | -11.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.61 |
| league points | 36.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 2.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 1.87 |
| solidity v1 | -1.08 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.28 | 25.70 |
| state index | 0.25 | 1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 8.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.92 | 0.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 2.49 |