← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 10, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 45% | 34% | 2.16 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 30% | 43% | 3.32 | value: +44% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.79 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Nott'm Forest +0.25 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 59% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 41% | 2.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 26' | ⚽ | Anthony Elanga · Nott'm Forest |
| 43' | ⚽ | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
| 45' | ⚽ | Callum Hudson-Odoi · Nott'm Forest |
| 58' | 🟨 | Sven Botman · Newcastle |
| 59' | 🟨 | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 66' | ⚽ | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Callum Wilson · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days |
| 71.00 |
| 831.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1530.52 | 1692.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.31 | -19.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 21.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 6.15 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.15 | -4.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 9.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.43 | 28.07 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 228.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.87 |