← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 56% | 58% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.05 | fair |
| Sheffield United win | 20% | 18% | 4.96 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Sheffield United −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 50% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 50% | 2.08 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Mason Holgate · Sheffield United |
| 26' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United |
| 30' | ⚽ | Cameron Archer · Sheffield United |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | James McAtee · Sheffield United |
| 41' | 🟨 | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 72' | ⚽ | Vinícius Souza · Sheffield United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 466.00 | 71.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1593.35 | 1392.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.20 | -11.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.58 |
| league points | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 0.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | -0.33 |
| solidity v1 | -0.99 | -1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.13 | 25.49 |
| state index | 0.41 | -1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 179.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 1.53 |