← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 83% | 86% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 11% | 9.27 | value: +3% |
| Burnley win | 6% | 3% | 17.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley −2.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Liverpool −2.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 57% | 1.31 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 43% | 3.57 | value: +52% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Dara O'Shea · Burnley |
| 19' | 🟨 | Jarell Quansah · Liverpool |
| 26' | 🟨 | Josh Brownhill · Burnley |
| 31' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Liverpool |
| 33' | 🟨 | Wataru Endo · Liverpool |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dara O'Shea · Burnley |
| 52' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · Liverpool |
| 69' | 🟨 | Darwin Núñez · Liverpool |
| 79' | ⚽ | Darwin Núñez · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 9 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 2515.00 | 619.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1862.69 | 1468.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.62 | -5.88 |
| eye test v1 | 2.33 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| league points | 51.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 34.80 |
| rest days | 5.94 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.22 | 0.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.20 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.80 | -1.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.45 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.52 | 23.81 |
| state index | 1.38 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -1.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 62.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.75 | 1.27 |