← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 4, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 43% | 37% | 2.25 | fair |
| Liverpool win | 30% | 32% | 3.26 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.75 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Liverpool −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 66% | 1.71 | value: +13% |
| Under | 43% | 34% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 25' | 🟨 | Joe Gomez · Liverpool |
| 31' | 🟨 | Benjamin White · Arsenal |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Gabriel Magalhães · Liverpool |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Konaté · Liverpool |
| 57' | 🟨 | Gabriel Magalhães · Arsenal |
| 67' | ⚽ | Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jakub Kiwior · Arsenal |
| 88' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Konaté · Liverpool |
| 88' | 🟥 | Ibrahima Konaté · Liverpool |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Kai Havertz · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Declan Rice · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | William Saliba · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Darwin Núñez · Liverpool |
| 90' | ⚽ | Leandro Trossard · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 399.00 | 2509.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| elo | 2009.60 | 2071.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.62 | 26.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | 2.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.60 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| league points | 46.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 4.88 | 3.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.09 | 2.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 13.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.20 | 21.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.60 | 1.81 |
| solidity v1 | 0.72 | 1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 8.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 11.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 9.60 |
| squad age | 25.20 | 25.99 |
| state index | 1.36 | 2.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| travel km | — | 284.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 2.87 |