← Premier League 2023-24 · Thu, Feb 1, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 40% | 28% | 2.46 | fair |
| Wolves win | 33% | 45% | 3.01 | value: +36% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves +0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Man United +0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 49% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Alejandro Garnacho · Man United |
| 3' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Man United |
| 5' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 22' | ⚽ | Rasmus Højlund · Man United |
| 45' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · Wolves |
| 48' | 🟨 | Lisandro Martínez · Man United |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Pablo Sarabia · Wolves |
| 75' | ⚽ | Scott McTominay · Man United |
| 78' | 🟨 | André Onana · Man United |
| 85' | ⚽ | Max Kilman · Wolves |
| 89' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 21 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pedro Neto · Wolves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kobbie Mainoo · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 184.00 | 610.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.58 | 3.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1819.53 | 1895.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.30 | -12.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| league points | 29.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 10.02 | 18.16 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | -0.33 |
| solidity v1 | 0.31 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.19 | 26.11 |
| state index | 1.31 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 97.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 0.88 |