← Premier League 2023-24 · Tue, Jan 30, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
| Luton win | 23% | 24% | 4.29 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton +0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Brighton +0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 59% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 41% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Elijah Adebayo · Luton |
| 3' | ⚽ | Chiedozie Ogbene · Luton |
| 13' | 🟨 | Igor Júlio · Brighton |
| 25' | 🟨 | Albert Sambi Lokonga · Luton |
| 42' | ⚽ | Elijah Adebayo · Luton |
| 56' | ⚽ | Elijah Adebayo · Luton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 73' | 🟨 | Carlos Baleba · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 455.00 | 516.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 3.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1709.35 | 1909.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.21 | 1.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.57 |
| league points | 16.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 89.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 1.52 |
| solidity v1 | -0.85 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.25 | 27.21 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | 1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 116.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.78 |