← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 21, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 57% | 55% | 1.71 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 22% | 22% | 4.49 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool +0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Bournemouth +0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 57% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 43% | 2.94 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | ⚽ | Darwin Núñez · Liverpool |
| 59' | 🟨 | Lewis Cook · Bournemouth |
| 66' | 🟨 | Conor Bradley · Liverpool |
| 70' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Liverpool |
| 79' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Darwin Núñez · Liverpool |
| 90' | ⚽ | Darwin Núñez · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 204.00 | 2495.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.28 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1799.06 | 2055.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 65.00 | -9.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 1.99 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 25.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 21.10 | 19.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 14.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 22.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | 1.82 |
| solidity v1 | 0.38 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| squad age | 26.57 | 27.17 |
| state index | 1.51 | 1.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 309.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 2.51 |