← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 37% | 37% | 2.67 | fair |
| Sheffield United win | 35% | 36% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Sheffield United +0 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 51% | 1.91 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 49% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Maxwel Cornet · West Ham |
| 39' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United |
| 42' | 🟨 | James Ward-Prowse · West Ham |
| 44' | ⚽ | Ben Brereton Díaz · Sheffield United |
| 68' | 🟨 | Andre Brooks · Sheffield United |
| 75' | 🟨 | Anel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | James Ward-Prowse · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟥 | Rhian Brewster · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vladimír Coufal · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vladimír Coufal · West Ham |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| 🟥 |
| Vladimír Coufal · West Ham |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Oliver McBurnie · Sheffield United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 51.00 | 1512.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1395.93 | 1734.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.50 | 56.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 66.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| league points | 9.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 30.80 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 21.96 | 18.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.45 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.69 | -0.50 |
| solidity v1 | -0.24 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.18 | 28.33 |
| state index | -0.55 | 1.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.52 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 227.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.22 |