← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 20, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 54% | 45% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 37% | 3.86 | value: +42% |
| Nott'm Forest win | 20% | 18% | 4.81 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Brentford −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 56% | 1.95 | value: +9% |
| Under | 50% | 44% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Danilo Santos · Nott'm Forest |
| 18' | 🟨 | Orel Mangala · Nott'm Forest |
| 19' | ⚽ | Ivan Toney · Brentford |
| 51' | 🟨 | Danilo Santos · Nott'm Forest |
| 54' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Montiel · Nott'm Forest |
| 58' | ⚽ | Ben Mee · Brentford |
| 65' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Nott'm Forest |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ivan Toney · Brentford |
| 68' | ⚽ | Neal Maupay · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brentford | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.84 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Gtech Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1937.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1817.07 | 1752.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -69.77 | 21.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 36.20 |
| rest days | 21.10 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -0.80 |
| solidity v1 | -0.75 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.60 | 25.96 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | -1.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 171.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.56 |