← Premier League 2023-24 · Mon, Jan 1, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 70% | 78% | 1.38 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 17% | 13% | 5.70 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 13% | 9% | 7.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle −1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Liverpool −1.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 58% | 1.37 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 42% | 3.26 | value: +36% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 45' | 🟨 | Trent Alexander-Arnold · Liverpool |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luis Díaz · Liverpool |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lewis Miley · Newcastle |
| 49' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 54' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 66' | 🟨 | Wataru Endo · Liverpool |
| 66' | 🟨 | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 74' | ⚽ | Curtis Jones · Liverpool |
| 78' | ⚽ | Cody Gakpo · Liverpool |
| 81' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 34 | Shots | 5 |
| 15 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Anfield |
| Sven Botman · Newcastle |
| 84' | 🟨 | Martin Dúbravka · Newcastle |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 89' | 🟨 | Sean Longstaff · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2475.00 | 791.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.49 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.50 |
| elo | 2048.97 | 1900.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.25 | -70.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.69 |
| league points | 42.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 6.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | 1.53 |
| solidity v1 | 0.72 | -2.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.55 | 27.19 |
| state index | 1.53 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.11 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 192.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 2.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 2.14 |