← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 30, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 44% | 47% | 2.21 | value: +5% |
| Nott'm Forest win | 30% | 35% | 3.31 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 26% | 18% | 3.66 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United +0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Nott'm Forest +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 59% | 1.79 | value: +5% |
| Under | 46% | 41% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | 🟨 | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 58' | 🟨 | Diogo Dalot · Man United |
| 59' | 🟨 | Raphaël Varane · Man United |
| 64' | ⚽ | Nicolás Domínguez · Nott'm Forest |
| 78' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 82' | ⚽ | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 85' | 🟨 | Alejandro Garnacho · Man United |
| 88' | 🟨 | Orel Mangala · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christian Eriksen · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days | 29.00 | 577.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 3.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1739.62 | 1908.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.07 | -20.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | — |
| league points | 17.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 3.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | 0.54 |
| solidity v1 | -1.37 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.64 | 26.48 |
| state index | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.44 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 96.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.65 |