← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 69% | 68% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.30 | fair |
| Burnley win | 12% | 13% | 8.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Burnley −1.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 38% | 2.64 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Ezri Konsa · Aston Villa |
| 23' | 🟨 | Charlie Taylor · Burnley |
| 28' | ⚽ | Leon Bailey · Aston Villa |
| 31' | ⚽ | Zeki Amdouni · Burnley |
| 42' | 🟨 | Sander Berge · Burnley |
| 42' | ⚽ | Moussa Diaby · Aston Villa |
| 56' | 🟨 | Sander Berge · Burnley |
| 56' | 🟥 | Sander Berge · Burnley |
| 71' | ⚽ | Lyle Foster · Burnley |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jacob Ramsey · Aston Villa |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emiliano Martínez · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 424.00 | 577.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1958.37 | 1734.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.82 | -0.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -1.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 39.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | -1.00 |
| solidity v1 | 0.64 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 27.76 | 24.71 |
| state index | 1.16 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.38 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 144.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 0.66 |