← Premier League 2023-24 · Wed, Dec 27, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 54% | 60% | 1.81 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.80 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 21% | 19% | 4.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Chelsea −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 51% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 49% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Mykhaylo Mudryk · Chelsea |
| 45' | ⚽ | Michael Olise · Crystal Palace |
| 52' | 🟨 | Moisés Caicedo · Chelsea |
| 73' | 🟨 | Chris Richards · Crystal Palace |
| 80' | 🟨 | Noni Madueke · Chelsea |
| 80' | 🟨 | Tyrick Mitchell · Crystal Palace |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Noni Madueke · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Conor Gallagher · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 179.00 | 301.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1835.21 | 1786.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.77 | -11.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.72 |
| league points | 22.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 3.27 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.47 | -0.74 |
| solidity v1 | -0.88 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.77 | 26.56 |
| state index | 0.54 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.11 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 11.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 1.37 |