← Premier League 2023-24 · Tue, Dec 26, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 42% | 34% | 2.35 | fair |
| Aston Villa win | 33% | 43% | 2.98 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.77 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Man United −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 57% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 43% | 2.43 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 26' | ⚽ | Leander Dendoncker · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jacob Ramsey · Aston Villa |
| 59' | ⚽ | Alejandro Garnacho · Man United |
| 71' | ⚽ | Alejandro Garnacho · Man United |
| 73' | 🟨 | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 74' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Aston Villa |
| 82' | ⚽ | Rasmus Højlund · Man United |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ezri Konsa · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 573.00 | 420.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.89 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1898.44 | 1968.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.02 | 17.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.73 |
| league points | 28.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 3.31 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 0.88 |
| solidity v1 | -0.68 | 1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.47 | 27.09 |
| state index | 0.30 | 1.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | 0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 109.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 0.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.26 |