← Premier League 2023-24 · Tue, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Allison
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United win | 40% | 46% | 2.46 | value: +13% |
| Luton win | 31% | 30% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.29 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Sheffield United −0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 51% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 49% | 2.22 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Anel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United |
| 17' | ⚽ | Alfie Doughty · Luton |
| 41' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United |
| 61' | ⚽ | Oliver McBurnie · Sheffield United |
| 69' | ⚽ | Anel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United |
| 77' | 🟨 | George Baldock · Sheffield United |
| 77' | ⚽ (og) | Jack Robinson · Luton |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jack Robinson · Sheffield United |
| 81' | ⚽ (og) | Anis Ben Slimane · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Norwood · Sheffield United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| coach days | 25.00 | 420.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 1.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1404.01 | 1569.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.14 | 5.71 |
| eye test v1 | -1.38 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| league points | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 28.80 | 34.60 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -11.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.35 | -1.51 |
| solidity v1 | -0.89 | -1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 26.64 |
| state index | -0.85 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.54 | -0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 179.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 2.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.70 |