← Premier League 2023-24 · Tue, Dec 26, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 68% | 62% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.15 | value: +10% |
| Nott'm Forest win | 13% | 17% | 8.10 | value: +35% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle −1.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Nott'm Forest −1.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 45% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 55% | 2.32 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 26' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Nott'm Forest |
| 27' | 🟨 | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 27' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Montiel · Nott'm Forest |
| 45' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Nott'm Forest |
| 53' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Nott'm Forest |
| 60' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Nott'm Forest |
| 84' | 🟨 | Neco Williams · Nott'm Forest |
| 85' | 🟨 | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 88' | 🟨 | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| coach days | 785.00 | 25.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1711.75 | 1500.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.22 | -43.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 29.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.44 | -1.01 |
| solidity v1 | -1.00 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 28.56 | 26.00 |
| state index | 0.38 | -1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 228.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.15 | 0.93 |