← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 39% | 30% | 2.52 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 34% | 29% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 41% | 3.50 | value: +45% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth +0 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Nott'm Forest +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 43% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 57% | 1.96 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Willy Boly · Nott'm Forest |
| 23' | 🟨 | Willy Boly · Nott'm Forest |
| 23' | 🟥 | Willy Boly · Nott'm Forest |
| 31' | 🟨 | Alex Scott · Bournemouth |
| 47' | ⚽ | Anthony Elanga · Nott'm Forest |
| 51' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
| 58' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
| 65' | 🟨 | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ryan Christie · Bournemouth |
| 74' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | The City Ground |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 22.00 |
| 175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1510.60 | 1557.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.73 | 93.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | 1.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.59 | 1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 26.39 | 26.46 |
| state index | -1.00 | 1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | -1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 249.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 0.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 2.14 |