← Premier League 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 22, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 79% | 71% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 21% | 7.30 | value: +57% |
| Sheffield United win | 8% | 8% | 13.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United −2 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Aston Villa −2 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 65% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 35% | 3.04 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | 🟨 | Leon Bailey · Aston Villa |
| 51' | 🟨 | Yasser Larouci · Sheffield United |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jayden Bogle · Sheffield United |
| 87' | ⚽ | Cameron Archer · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolò Zaniolo · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Auston Trusty · Sheffield United |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nicolò Zaniolo · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 416.00 | 21.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1791.58 | 1395.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.01 | -19.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -1.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 38.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 64.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 33.60 |
| rest days | 5.25 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.24 | 0.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | -2.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.58 | -1.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.18 | 25.08 |
| state index | 1.19 | -1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | -1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 99.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 2.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 0.67 |