← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 17, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 72% | 61% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 21% | 6.10 | value: +25% |
| Man United win | 12% | 18% | 8.50 | value: +56% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool −1.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Man United −1.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 70% | 1.38 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 30% | 3.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Darwin Núñez · Liverpool |
| 27' | 🟨 | Kobbie Mainoo · Man United |
| 35' | 🟨 | Sofyan Amrabat · Man United |
| 45' | 🟨 | Wataru Endo · Liverpool |
| 88' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diogo Dalot · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diogo Dalot · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 90' | 🟥 | Diogo Dalot · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 34 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 2460.00 | 564.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| elo | 2050.33 | 1907.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.76 | -13.18 |
| eye test v1 | 1.28 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| league points | 37.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 2.95 | 8.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.31 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.66 | 0.94 |
| solidity v1 | 0.10 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.45 | 26.56 |
| state index | 1.64 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.36 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 44.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 2.04 |