← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Coote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 42% | 38% | 2.36 | fair |
| Brentford win | 31% | 36% | 3.18 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.46 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Aston Villa +0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 37% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 63% | 1.98 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Keane Lewis-Potter · Brentford |
| 46' | 🟨 | Christian Nørgaard · Brentford |
| 71' | 🟥 | Ben Mee · Brentford |
| 77' | ⚽ | Álex Moreno · Aston Villa |
| 80' | 🟨 | Leon Bailey · Aston Villa |
| 85' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 86' | 🟨 | Saman Ghoddos · Brentford |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ezri Konsa · Aston Villa |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jhon Durán · Aston Villa |
| 88' | 🟨 | Vitaly Janelt · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 12 |
| 19 | Fouls | 6 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brentford | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Gtech Community Stadium |
| Yehor Yarmoliuk · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Neal Maupay · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Frank Onyeka · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emiliano Martínez · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟥 | Boubacar Kamara · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1903.00 | 411.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1864.70 | 1967.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.43 | 13.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 19.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 2.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 2.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 0.72 |
| solidity v1 | -0.19 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.75 | 25.41 |
| state index | 0.42 | 1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 157.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.27 |