← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 44% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
| West Ham win | 29% | 32% | 3.41 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham −0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| West Ham −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 51% | 1.86 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 49% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Aaron Cresswell · West Ham |
| 22' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez · Fulham |
| 31' | ⚽ | Willian · Fulham |
| 41' | ⚽ | Tosin Adarabioyo · Fulham |
| 45' | 🟨 | João Palhinha · Fulham |
| 60' | ⚽ | Harry Wilson · Fulham |
| 75' | 🟨 | Fodé Ballo-Touré · Fulham |
| 89' | ⚽ | Carlos Vinícius · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 892.00 | 1470.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1805.69 | 1871.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.87 | 27.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 71.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 18.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 3.77 | 2.74 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | 0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -0.89 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.94 | 28.79 |
| state index | 0.80 | 1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 17.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.34 |