← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 58% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.48 | value: +6% |
| Bournemouth win | 20% | 21% | 4.78 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −1 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Man United −1 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 53% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 47% | 2.77 | value: +31% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
| 27' | 🟨 | Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth |
| 30' | 🟨 | Sergio Reguilón · Man United |
| 60' | 🟨 | Rasmus Højlund · Man United |
| 68' | ⚽ | Philip Billing · Bournemouth |
| 73' | ⚽ | Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth |
| 84' | 🟨 | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 556.00 | 161.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.19 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1935.39 | 1754.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.40 | 63.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.69 |
| league points | 27.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 2.78 | 2.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.17 | 26.45 |
| state index | 1.32 | 0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 304.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.95 | 2.03 |