← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 9, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 65% | 56% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 15% | 4.75 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 14% | 29% | 6.65 | value: +94% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool +1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Crystal Palace +1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 61% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 39% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace |
| 71' | 🟨 | Chris Richards · Crystal Palace |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 75' | 🟥 | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 76' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Naouirou Ahamada · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joachim Andersen · Crystal Palace |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| 🟨 |
| Luis Díaz · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Gomez · Liverpool |
| 90' | ⚽ | Harvey Elliott · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 283.00 | 2452.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1565.49 | 1869.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.28 | 24.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 1.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 16.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 2.71 | 2.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 2.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | 1.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 9.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.40 |
| squad age | 27.81 | 26.44 |
| state index | -0.46 | 1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 298.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.91 |