← Premier League 2023-24 · Wed, Dec 6, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 81% | 78% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 11% | 8.50 | fair |
| Sheffield United win | 6% | 11% | 15.00 | value: +58% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool +2 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Sheffield United +2 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 68% | 1.32 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 32% | 3.53 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Wataru Endo · Liverpool |
| 37' | ⚽ | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Konaté · Liverpool |
| 84' | 🟨 | Darwin Núñez · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jayden Bogle · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Norwood · Sheffield United |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 12 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 5.00 | 2449.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1386.87 | 1867.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.55 | 6.52 |
| eye test v1 | -1.41 | 1.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.60 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| league points | 5.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 4.19 | 3.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.36 | 2.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | 1.36 |
| solidity v1 | -2.01 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 7.60 |
| squad age | 26.76 | 26.82 |
| state index | -1.13 | 1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 99.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.06 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.66 | 1.78 |